Home › Market News › Gold Prices, Interest Rate Futures, and A Short Squeeze In Stocks?
The Economic Calendar:
MONDAY: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (9:30a CT), 2-Year Note Auction Manufacturing (10:30a CT), 5-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT), Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates (2:00p CT)
TUESDAY: Goods Trade Balance (7:30a CT), Retail/Wholesale Inventories (7:30a CT), Redbook (7:55a CT), House Price Index (8:00a CT), Consumer Confidence (9:00a CT), JOLTs (9:00a CT), Dallas Fed Services Index (9:30a CT), 7-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT), API Crude Oil Stock Change (3:30p CT), 2-Day Fed Meeting Begins
WEDNESDAY: MBA Mortgage Applications (6:00a CT), ADP Employment Change (7:15a CT), GDP (7:30a CT), Real Consumer Spending (7:30a CT), Pending Home Sales (9:00a CT), EIA Petroleum Status Report (9:30a CT), Fed Interest Rate Decision (1:00p CT), Fed Press Conference (1:30p CT)
THURSDAY: Challenger Job Cuts (6:30a CT), Core PCE (7:30a CT), Jobless Claims (7:30a CT), Chicago PMI (8:45a CT), EIA Natural Gas Report (9:30a CT), Fed Balance Sheet (3:30p CT)
FRIDAY: July Jobs Report (7:30a CT), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (8:45a CT), Construction Spending (9:00a CT), ISM Manufacturing Index (9:00a CT), University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (9:00a CT), Baker Hughes Rig Count (12:00p CT)
Key Events:
That small red position you’re holding onto isn’t just a temporary setback—it’s a ticking time bomb. Every minute you let a losing trade roll against you, you’re not just losing more money; you’re entering dangerous psychological territory where rational decision-making breaks down.
What starts as a manageable $200 loss becomes a $500 panic, then a $1,000 disaster where you’re hitting the sell button into a waterfall with no buyers in sight.
The market has a cruel way of accelerating losses right when you finally decide to capitulate. By the time you smell the real danger, liquidity has evaporated, and your small mistake has become an account-threatening catastrophe.
The pros don’t cut losses quickly because they’re smarter—they do it because they’ve learned that small losses stay small, but big losses get bigger fast.
Non-Farm Payrolls are projected to print around 102,000, lower than May’s 147,000.
The key focus should be on the two-month NFP average, which is expected to be around 100,000 (near breakeven), with the unemployment rate likely rising to a still-manageable 4.2%.
Source: TradingEconomics
The central bank’s monetary policy committee is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady on Wednesday.
Interest rate futures markets continue to price in a cautious Federal Reserve stance, with a high probability (around 95%) of no change at the upcoming July 29 FOMC meeting.
Powell’s remarks at the post-decision press conference will be heavily scrutinized.
While recent stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls had trimmed some near-term expectations for rate cuts, the broader view suggests that the Fed will move closer to easing policy in the latter half of the year.
Speculation surrounding a potential successor to Chair Jerome Powell is reinforcing bets on easier monetary policy, regardless of who leads the central bank. However, the Fed remains in a “wait-and-see” mode, prioritizing clarity on the full impact of tariffs and inflation before making significant moves.
Source: CME Fedwatch
The market mood is decidedly RISK ON. Last week, the S&P 500 gained 1.44% and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.81%.
The S&P 500’s blended (actual and estimated) earnings per share (EPS) growth rate for Q2 has risen to 4.3% year-over-year, with expectations for it to reach closer to 8.0% once all companies report their results.
So far, 12% of S&P 500 companies have released Q2 earnings. Of those, 83% have surpassed Wall Street analysts’ consensus EPS expectations, outperforming the 1-year (77%), 5-year (78%), and 10-year (75%) averages. Collectively, these companies have reported earnings 7.9% higher than anticipated, exceeding the 1-year (6.3%) and 10-year (6.9%) averages.
Market strategist Dan Niles expresses optimism for the earnings season due to four key factors:
The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high, indicating a resurgence of “animal spirits” in the market, as evidenced by over 100 IPOs, including notable ones such as CoreWeave and Circle.
July has proven to be a particularly strong month for investors holding heavily shorted stocks. A chart analyzing the average month-to-date performance of Russell 3000 stocks (with market caps above $1 billion) based on short interest levels shows significant outperformance. While all stocks have, on average, gained 4.3% in July, the 20 most heavily shorted stocks have surged by 25.2%.
UBS’s index of 100 heavily shorted stocks further illustrates this trend, having soared 79% in a straight line over the past three-plus months since the April 8th post-“Liberation” Day low for the S&P. In contrast, a basket of 50 stocks heavily owned by hedge funds is up less than half that, at 37%, while the S&P 500 itself has gained 28% over the same period.
Goldman Sachs reports its Speculative Trading Indicator has reached its highest level since the dot-com and pandemic bubbles, fueled by significant trading in unprofitable, penny, and high Enterprise Value/Sales stocks. This heightened risk appetite is also reflected in high trading volumes for “Mag 7” names, digital assets, and quantum computing. Call option activity has surged to its highest point since 2021, and IPO/SPAC issuance has hit a multi-year high, with SPACs alone raising $9 billion in Q2.
Goldman Sachs further notes that a retail-favorite stock basket has climbed 50% since April, underscoring a speculative tone in the market. Historically, such spikes in speculative activity have correlated with strong S&P 500 returns over the subsequent 3 to 12 months, but weaker returns over a two-year period, suggesting potential near-term upside but elevated long-term risk.
Source: TradingView
Gold prices experienced a sharper-than-expected decline Thursday but managed to rally back to their point of control (POC) at $3,342.00 by the end of the week.. This recent volatility follows what appears to have been a “hit-and-run” trading strategy from Tuesday to Thursday, which reportedly drew a significant number of buyers into the market above the $3,400.00 level. Many of these long positions were subsequently stopped out during Asian trading hours, with remaining liquidations occurring in the regular U.S. session.
Despite these short-term fluctuations, gold remains firmly in a bull market and is considered undervalued by some analysts. This assessment is supported by metrics such as U.S. Gold Reserves as a percentage of the Federal Reserve’s total assets.
Global investors and central banks are increasingly recognizing that, given current government structures, monetary debasement through aggressive money printing is a growingly probable scenario, which historically favors gold as a store of value. Central banks, both large and small, continue to aggressively purchase gold to diversify their reserves, a trend a recent industry survey suggests will remain a major factor. These central bank purchases are rarely followed by sales, effectively creating a largely one-way demand channel for the metal.
Source: TradingView
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined by $0.90 per barrel on Friday, closing at around $65.16, following reports that the Trump administration is reportedly preparing to grant new authorizations for U.S. oil companies with assets in Venezuela. This potential policy shift would enable these companies to operate with certain limitations and engage in oil swap agreements —a rare move that could unlock new sources of global supply.
The initiative is viewed by some analysts as a strategic move to establish new supply channels, possibly in anticipation of future sanctions on Russia. Should President Trump proceed with reopening Venezuela to U.S. majors and operators, the move is unlikely to be easily reversed, suggesting a potentially enduring addition to global crude supply even if geopolitical dynamics with Russia shift. Such a policy adjustment underscores a notable recalibration in the U.S. approach to global energy markets.
Bitcoin futures (BTCQ25) started the week at ~$119,750, peaking at $123,153 on July 21 amid “Crypto Week” optimism, but retraced to ~$115,574 by July 26, down 3.95% for the week.
Spot Bitcoin followed a similar path, reaching $123,000 before correcting to $115,000, driven by a long squeeze and declining open interest (OI). Futures OI rose slightly, but net OI dropped below -$100M, signaling bearish pressure.
BTC support at $115,000, resistance at $120,000.
These performance charts track the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes of various asset classes, including some of the most popular and liquid markets available to traders.
