Week 46: Oil Falls 14% as Washington Flips, Tech Suffers Its Worst Day Since 2020, and Payrolls Smash Forecasts

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Oil fell sharply. WTI futures for December (CLZ26) are -13.58% on the week at $89.93 and Brent about 14% lower near $97, as the Democratic takeover of Congress on Tuesday raised hopes of a path to ending the U.S.–Iran war: on Wednesday WTI fell 8.3% to $88.12, and Brent dipped below $100 for the first time since October 7. Gasoline futures are down 12.81%, and heating oil is down 8.45%, even though distillate stocks are at a 23-year low. The risk has not gone away: tanker attacks continue, Iran says the sides are ‘far from a deal,’ and reports describe U.S. strike planning.
• Equities had a violent week. Thursday was the worst day since April 2025 for the S&P 500 (−4.36% to 7,353.73) and the worst since March 2020 for the Nasdaq-100 (−6.36%), with the semiconductor index down 12.25%, its second-biggest drop on record, on fears about AI spending and data-center restrictions under the new Congress. Nasdaq-100 futures are down 4.84% for the week, and the S&P 500 is down 2.37%, after a Wednesday rally of about 1,570 points in the Dow and a partial rebound Friday.
• Payrolls beat badly. October nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 against about 59,000 expected, unemployment fell to 4.1%, wages rose 0.4% on the month, and August and September were revised up by 84,000 combined. Odds of a December Fed hike rose to about 77–80% from about 68% before the report; the 2-year yield rose about 5.5 basis points to roughly 4.53%. Ten-year note futures are still +0.41% on the week after the 10-year yield closed Thursday at 4.84%, its lowest since early September. Central banks tightened: the Bank of England hiked to 4.00%, and the Riksbank and RBA also raised rates.

Data as of Friday, November 6, 2026. Prices are a MIDDAY snapshot (saved 12:00 CT)

POST-ELECTION VOLATILITY AND HEDGE FUND TECH STOCK LIQUIDATIONS

WEEK IN REVIEW: MACRO CONTEXT

The week was set by the November 3 midterm elections and what followed. Monday: oil fell about 7% on reports of a draft U.S.–Iran proposal circulating through Qatari mediators, and OPEC+ held December output at September levels. Tuesday: Democrats won the House and, on current counts, the Senate (final seat totals were still moving), and flipped governorships including Texas, Georgia and Ohio. Wednesday: oil and yields fell, the dollar eased, and the Dow rose about 1,570 points (3%), its best day since April 2025. Vice President Vance wrote on X that ‘the reason we lost is the war.’

Thursday reversed the mood. Technology stocks collapsed on fears that new Democratic control of Congress would restrict data-center construction and tighten financing for AI buildouts; Micron fell 17%, AMD 17%, Nvidia 9% and Tesla 11%, and Reuters-based reports say about $3 trillion of S&P 500 market value was lost. Treasury yields fell again as investors sought safety (10-year 4.84%), while oil rebounded about 3% on shipping incidents in the Gulf. Strategists disagreed on the cause: sources cite the election, Texas politics (the Democratic governor-elect told CNN the state should halt data-center work until protections are in place), and leveraged-position unwinds, but the reports do not name a single trigger.

Friday brought the jobs report: payrolls of +165,000, unemployment at 4.1%, average hourly earnings up 0.4% (3.1% year over year), and the underemployment rate rising to 7.9%.

Other data this week were strong: ISM manufacturing 55.5, job openings 7.52 million, jobless claims 189,000 (matching a 57-year low), and third-quarter productivity up 3.6%. The Treasury’s refunding statement on Wednesday kept coupon sizes unchanged but dropped the words ‘at least’ from its guidance on holding them ‘for the next several quarters’, which some read as opening the door to increases. The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4.00% on an 8–1 vote.

Data as of Friday, November 6, 2026. Prices are a MIDDAY snapshot (saved 12:00 CT)

ENERGY (CLZ26 / HOZ26 / RBZ26 / NGZ26) — THE WAR PREMIUM COMES OUT, THE PHYSICAL TIGHTNESS STAYS

Crude’s weekly fall is the largest in the data set we track since the pandemic: WTI (December, CLZ26) is -13.58% at $89.93 and Brent (January) is about 14% lower near $97.

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

CLZ26 (Crude Oil) last $89.93, -13.58% on the week, RSI 41.9, ADX 16.5; price is above its 100-day $83.70 and 200-day $78.45, but below its 20-day $97.17 and 50-day $92.21.

RBZ26 (Gasoline RBOB) last $2.7580, -12.81% on the week, RSI 35.2, ADX 11.2; price is above its 100-day $2.7437, 200-day $2.4981 but below its 20-day $3.0352, 50-day $2.9987.

HOZ26 (Heating Oil) last $4.3041, -8.45% on the week, RSI 41.7, ADX 11.8; price is above its 100-day $3.9907, 200-day $3.4309 but below its 20-day $4.6052, 50-day $4.5051.

NGZ26 (Natural Gas) last $2.994, +1.86% on the week, RSI 33.7, ADX 16.9; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day $3.157, 50-day $3.339, 100-day $3.545, 200-day $3.960). 

FUNDAMENTAL THESIS

The diplomatic picture is more fragile than the price move suggests. Iran’s terms include lifting the U.S. naval blockade, easing sanctions and releasing frozen funds, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters the sides ‘remain far from a deal’; Supreme Leader Khamenei said Wednesday that anyone expecting a change in U.S. policy after the midterms is ‘seriously mistaken.’ Vance has sent a letter to Iran’s security chief proposing direct talks (Iran confirmed receipt, no reply), President Trump told the Financial Times he has ‘no immediate plan’ to strike, and the New York Times reported a roughly three-day Pentagon strike plan that has not been authorized.

On the water, UKMTO logged continuing incidents November 1–4, including a VLCC hit on November 3, and counts shipping about 70% below pre-conflict levels; Kpler put Hormuz crude flows at 11.7 million barrels a day in October, down from 14.5 million before the war.

Physical tightness is unusual given the price fall. The EIA reported commercial crude fell 0.9 million barrels to 409.8 million for a fifth straight draw (a 0.9 million build was expected); distillate fell 3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million, 13% below the five-year average and the lowest since 2003; gasoline fell 0.2 million barrels; refinery utilization rose to 94.5%; and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 282.2 million barrels.

CATALYST CALENDAR — NEXT 10 DAYS

WATCH ITEMS

• Diplomacy: Iran’s answer to Vance’s letter and the Qatari sequence; any sign that U.S. strike planning has been authorized.
• Distillates: next Thursday’s EIA report (delayed by the Veterans Day holiday) after a 23-year-low stock level.
• OPEC+ on November 29 and the November 10 EIA outlook for how agencies price the new regime.

EQUITY INDICES (NQ/ES/RTY/YM) — THE WORST DAY FOR TECH SINCE 2020

The Nasdaq-100 (NQZ26) is -4.84% on the week and the S&P 500 (ESZ26) -2.37%, in Friday-midday data after a partial rebound. The week has two halves: a Wednesday rally after the election, then a Thursday downside liquidation that set records.

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE‍

NQZ26 (Nasdaq 100) last 27,009, -4.84% on the week, RSI 31.4, ADX 12.2; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day 29,265, 50-day 29,880, 100-day 29,813, 200-day 28,492).

ESZ26 (S&P 500) last 7,404, -2.37% on the week, RSI 36.3, ADX 13.5; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day 7,698, 50-day 7,735, 100-day 7,699, 200-day 7,439).

QRZ26 (Russell 2000) last 2,752, -2.55% on the week, RSI 40.5, ADX 16.0; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day 2,796, 50-day 2,856, 100-day 2,941, 200-day 2,848).

YMZ26 (Dow) last 51,503, -0.65% on the week, RSI 43.8, ADX 21.9; price is above its 200-day 51,438 but below its 20-day 52,347, 50-day 52,377, 100-day 52,879.

FUNDAMENTAL THESIS

What happened Thursday? The cleanest statement is that an AI-and-data-center scare met crowded positioning. Individual moves were extreme: Micron fell 17%, SanDisk 22%, AMD 17.3%, Nvidia 9.3%, Qualcomm 9%, Tesla 10.8%, and AI infrastructure and neocloud names fell 10–14% (CoreWeave, Nebius, Iren). The semiconductor index fell 12.25%. Vanda Research counted the biggest net retail selling since March 17, 2020, and record options volume traded in QQQ.

Explanations offered by strategists differ: Morgan Stanley’s pre-election note flagged ‘incrementally negative AI sentiment on greater expectations for data center restrictions’; Texas Governor-elect Hinojosa told CNN the state should halt data-center work ‘until we have those protections’, though Governor Abbott had already paused approvals this autumn; and Reuters-based commentary points to the unwinding of crowded, leveraged positions. 

Earnings did not cause the drop but fed it. Apple beat on revenue and earnings and slipped about 3% after hours Monday (it had hit a record above a $5 trillion market value Wednesday); Palantir reported revenue of $2.31 billion (+96%), raised its full-year outlook to about $8.5 billion, and fell 2–3% after hours; AMD beat on Tuesday and then fell 17% Thursday and rebounded about 9% Friday; Uber rose 7% and AppLovin 31% on beats. Leadership on Wednesday was consumer discretionary (Amazon +7%), health care (HCA +9.6%, a beneficiary of expected ACA subsidy extensions) and dollar stores, with Microsoft up about 6% to a record; energy fell 5%.

Views are split. JPMorgan’s Jordan Jackson called the selloff a possible buying opportunity because AI-curbing legislation would face a presidential veto; Saxo’s Charu Chanana said scrutiny does not end the AI boom but that unwinding leveraged positions could extend the selling; Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said ‘they’re shooting the generals’; others said it is too early to call a bottom. The VIX was 25.45 Friday.

Nvidia reports November 17 after the close and Cisco on November 12.

CATALYST CALENDAR — NEXT 10 DAYS

WATCH ITEMS

• Nvidia (November 17) and Cisco (November 12): whether AI-infrastructure spending guidance holds.
• Legislative signals: any concrete proposal on data-center permitting or AI financing from the new Congress.
• Volatility: whether the VIX falls back below 20 or the curve stays in backwardation.

RATES & DOLLAR (ZT/ZF/ZN/ZB/DX) — STRONG JOBS, A HAWKISH FED AND A BANK OF ENGLAND HIKE

Yields fell to two-month lows on the equity rout and oil collapse, then payrolls reminded the market the Fed is still tightening. Futures show a quiet net result (ZNZ26 +0.41%, ZBZ26 +0.78%, ZTZ26 +0.11%), while the dollar index (DXZ26) is +0.24% at 102.100, up 0.66% today.

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

ZNZ26 (10Y T-Note) last 107-09, +0.41% on the week, RSI 63.0, ADX 25.5; price is above its 20-day 105-30, 50-day 105-27 but below its 100-day 107-09.5.

ZBZ26 (30Y T-Bond) last 108-26, +0.78% on the week, RSI 63.6, ADX 22.3; price is above all 3 moving averages (20-day 106-17, 50-day 106-04, 100-day 108-07).

ZFZ26 (5Y T-Note) last 105-10.5, +0.27% on the week, RSI 63.3, ADX 25.5; price is above its 20-day 104-12.7, 50-day 104-11.2 but below its 100-day 105-13.

ZTZ26 (2Y T-Note) last 102-14.62, +0.11% on the week, RSI 63.2, ADX 25.0; price is above its 20-day 102-02.1, 50-day 102-01.6 but below its 100-day 102-14.8, and within 0.9% of its contract low (101-17.2).

DXZ26 (Dollar Index) last 102.100, +0.24% on the week, RSI 57.8, ADX 23.7; price is above all 4 moving averages (20-day 101.802, 50-day 100.853, 100-day 100.413, 200-day 99.301), and within 0.6% of its contract high (102.735).

FUNDAMENTAL THESIS

The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on October 28, with two dissents for a hike; no new projections were published, and the next meeting is December 8–9. CME FedWatch put the odds of a December hike at about 82% on Wednesday,68% Thursday, and 77% after the jobs report (68% before).

This week’s speakers leaned hawkish but split on pace: Musalem said ‘additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon’; Logan said the committee needs at least two more 25 basis point increases; Hammack wants a restrictive stance with smaller, more frequent steps; Barkin said ‘gradual makes sense.

Abroad: the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4.00% on an 8–1 vote (one member wanted 50 basis points) and said policy is ‘not on a pre-set path’, with inflation seen near 5% by mid-2027; the Riksbank raised to 2.00% on November 4, its first increase since 2023; the RBA raised to 4.85% on November 3 on a 6–3 vote (secondary sources); the Bank of Canada hiked to 2.50% on October 28; the ECB held at 2.50% with a December hike about 85% priced; and the Bank of Japan held at 1.25% with a December increase widely expected. The dollar index rose about 0.6% Friday to roughly 102.2, the euro fell below 1.12, and USD/JPY is near 158.

Politics: Democrats won the House and, on current counts, the Senate; control of both chambers should bring investigations, subpoena power and a fight over the debt limit, with leverage on healthcare and tariffs. Markets read the result as capping fiscal expansion, which helped long bonds Wednesday; President Trump said he would veto ‘insane’ bills but could work with Democrats on some financial measures. 

WATCH ITEMS

• CPI on Tuesday November 10 (before the 10-year auction) and the 30-year auction on November 12.
• FOMC minutes on November 18 for the dissent debate, and whether any Fed speaker pushes for a hike in December.
• The refunding’s language change: any further hint of coupon-size increases would pressure the long end.

IMPORTANT NOTICE — PLEASE READ CAREFULLY.

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors; leverage can work against you as well as for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Per CFTC Rule 4.41, any hypothetical or simulated performance results have inherent limitations, do not represent actual trading, are prepared with the benefit of hindsight, and no representation is made that any account will achieve similar profits or losses. 

Week 45: Gold Slips Below $4,000, Silver Hits an 11-Month Low, and Big Tech Earnings Spook the Nasdaq

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Precious metals broke lower. Gold futures (GCZ26) are -0.93% for the week at $3,973.50, with spot gold at about 3,956–$ 3,979 in Friday trading, its lowest since July 17 (it also dipped below $4,000 on Tuesday). Silver fell to an 11-month low near $50.69 (-7.16% on futures), and palladium broke $1,000 while platinum broke $1,500. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday on a 10–2 vote, with two officials dissenting in favor of a hike; hot PCE inflation and strong GDP kept a December hike priced at roughly 75–85%.
• Grains are deeply oversold. A Brazilian election result sent the real down 8–11% on Monday and triggered fund liquidation; soy meal is -5.49% on the week (RSI near 29), and wheat extended a ninth straight weekly loss (Reuters count) after Russia said it would reopen the Kerch Strait with naval escorts. Managed-money corn length fell by more than half in two weeks, to about 164,000 contracts net long as of October 20.
• The Fed and the data pointed the same way. Third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% (3.2% expected), September PCE inflation was 3.6% over the year (core 3.1%), and the Fed’s statement upgraded growth to ‘strong.’ Ten-year note futures are up 0.52% for the week; the 10-year yield closed above 5% only on Wednesday (5.05%) and ended Thursday at 4.98%. Earnings then hit equities: Alphabet fell about 10–13% on capital-spending and cash-flow worries, Amazon and Intel dropped after hours (Intel 17–23% on weak guidance), and Nasdaq futures are down about 2–2.6% in pre-market trading (-1.10% on the week in our snapshot).
• Crude oil is on track for a fourth monthly gain, with Brent near $116 and U.S./Israeli strike planning reported for after the November 3 midterms; natural gas fell on mild weather; Bitcoin and Ether are down about 4% overnight with a rumored hack on Binance exchange.

Data as of Friday, October 30, 2026. Prices are a MORNING snapshot at 07:40 CT;

NASDAQ 100 FUTURES TESTING BUY THE DIPPERS

WEEK IN REVIEW: MACRO CONTEXT

The week had three acts. Monday: Brazil’s runoff pushed the real sharply lower, funds sold grains, and oil eased on Saudi–Iran diplomacy; the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and gold reclaimed $4,000 after dipping below it.

Wednesday: the Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on a 10–2 vote. Governor Cook (her first dissent) and Hammack wanted an immediate 25 basis point hike. The statement upgraded activity to ‘strong,’ and Chair Warsh said financial conditions were tighter, but he was ‘unwilling and unable to call them tight’ and that it is the Fed’s responsibility to bring inflation down.

Treasury yields rose about 5 basis points during the press conference. Thursday: third-quarter GDP rose 3.4% annualized (3.2% expected), and September PCE inflation was 3.6% year over year (August 3.4%), with core 3.1% in line; personal spending rose 0.5%, and the saving rate fell to 3.8%, the lowest since November 2022 (single source). Weekly jobless claims were 194,000. Equities faded as Alphabet fell after hours Wednesday and on Thursday: the Nasdaq lost 1.6% Thursday.

On Friday morning, Amazon (a small EPS and revenue miss, with trailing free cash flow of −$42 billion despite AWS growth of 39%) and Intel (a weak fourth-quarter outlook) pushed Nasdaq futures lower.

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Data as of Friday, October 30, 2026. Prices are a MORNING snapshot at 07:40 CT;

PRECIOUS METALS (GC/SI/PA/HG) — $4,000 GIVES WAY AND SILVER HITS AN 11-MONTH LOW

Gold broke its support, and silver and the platinum group fell harder.\

The week’s trigger was a Fed that didn't sound dovish when metals were already stretched. The 10–2 vote with two hike dissents, a ‘strong’ growth upgrade and hot PCE and GDP data kept CME FedWatch’s December hike odds at about 85% Wednesday and 75% Friday. The dollar index slid for a third straight day to about 101.65, and the 10-year yield was near 5%, so this was not a straightforward real-yield story; sources also point to selling to raise cash against equity losses (Alphabet’s drop) and technical breaks of $4,000 in gold, $52 in silver and $1,000 in palladium.

TD Securities said industrial precious metals are skewing to the downside, which fits silver and the PGMs underperforming gold.

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

GCZ26 (Gold) last $3,973.50, -0.93% on the week, RSI 31.7, ADX 11.8; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day $4,118.60, 50-day $4,296.20, 100-day $4,264.90, 200-day 4,592.10), and within 0.1% of its contract low(3,969.40).

SIZ26 (Silver) last $50.140, -7.16% on the week, RSI 23.2 (oversold), ADX 6.9; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day $57.048, 50-day $62.259, 100-day $62.407, 200-day $72.386).

PAZ26 (Palladium) last $964.50, -7.85% on the week, RSI 18.8 (oversold), ADX 5.6; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day $1,093.30, 50-day $1,227.75, 100-day $1,267.28.

HGZ26 (Copper) last $6.5235, +0.08% on the week, RSI 44.6, ADX 17.7; price is above its 200-day $6.3698 but below its 20-day $6.6055, 50-day $6.6394, 100-day $6.5678.
*These futures levels are from a 7:40 AM CT snapshot, before the U.S. open; Friday’s moves are overnight and final closes will differ.

WATCH ITEMS

• $4,000 and $3,900 in gold, $50 in silver and $1,000 in palladium: closes back above are needed to stabilize.
• The November 6 jobs report and the December 9 FOMC, which decide the real-yield and dollar path.
• The World Gold Council’s Q3 demand report (early November, date unconfirmed) and PBOC reserve data.

GRAINS (ZC/ZS/ZM/ZW/KE) — BRAZIL’S ELECTION, THE KERCH STRAIT AND A FUND EXODUS

ZCZ26 (December corn), ZSX26 (November soybeans), ZMZ26 (December meal) and ZWZ26/KEZ26 (December wheat) are NEW-crop (2026/27) contracts. The November soybean contract expires November 13, so weekly changes here (soybeans −3.1%) differ from the January contract.

Three forces drove prices.
First, Brazil: Lula won the runoff and the real fell 8–11% to about 5.45 per dollar on Monday, a weaker real encouraging Brazilian exports and hitting dollar-denominated grain prices; funds sold (January soybeans closed Monday at 1252½, down 16¢, after a two-month low).

Second, Russia: on Wednesday it said it would reopen the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov to grain vessels with naval escorts, the first since July 10, and Chicago wheat fell 11½¢ to 593¼, its lowest since July 1, before bouncing Thursday on COFCO interest in U.S. soft red wheat and a marketing-year-high 850,000 tonnes of weekly wheat export sales.

Third, fund liquidation: soy meal and KC wheat each had nine straight losses through Tuesday, and meal hit its lowest since August on Thursday. 

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

ZCZ26 (Corn) last 449.25¢, -1.37% on the week, RSI 23.6 (oversold), ADX 8.0; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day 472.62¢, 50-day 506.12¢, 100-day 484.00¢, 200-day 479.75¢).

ZSX26 (Soybeans) last 1,219.00¢, -3.10% on the week, RSI 28.5 (oversold), ADX 12.3; price is above its 200-day 1,187.88¢ but below its 20-day 1,261.12¢, 50-day 1,283.12¢, 100-day 1,232.88¢.

ZMZ26 (Soy Meal) last $326.7, -5.49% on the week, RSI 29.5 (oversold), ADX 13.1; price is above its 200-day $324.3 but below its 20-day $350.8, 50-day $352.9, 100-day $333.9.

ZWZ26 (Wheat) last 603.25¢, -3.36% on the week, RSI 23.8 (oversold), ADX 7.5; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day 649.62¢, 50-day 695.12¢, 100-day 674.75¢, 200-day 652.25¢).

KEZ26 (KC Wheat) last 643.25¢, -3.05% on the week, RSI 19.1 (oversold), ADX 7.5; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day 694.38¢, 50-day 751.75¢, 100-day 728.38¢, 200-day 692.38¢).

FUNDAMENTAL THESIS

Demand is real but narrow. China’s state buyers booked about 1.2–1.5 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans over two weeks for December–March shipment, taking cumulative purchases to about 15–17 million tonnes against a White House target of 25 million that Beijing has not confirmed; private crushers remain blocked by the residual 10% tariff and import crush margins are negative. On policy, the EPA finalized its 2026 renewable-volume rule on March 27 and said it would propose by the end of October how to reallocate small-refinery exemptions; we found no October final action and soybean oil fell Wednesday even as crude rose.

Harvest is nearly done. As of October 25, corn was 60% harvested (average 66%; Iowa 47% against 67%) with 56% rated good/excellent, soybeans 79% harvested (average 77%) and winter wheat 76% planted (average 77%). U.S. ethanol output was 1.118 million barrels a day with stocks of 24.5 million barrels

WATCH ITEMS

• The Brazilian real: another leg lower would add pressure to soybeans and meal.
• Russia’s Kerch escorts: whether grain shipping actually resumes and Black Sea attacks continue (a container ship was sunk Thursday).
• The November 10 WASDE (single source) after October’s yield-driven stocks increase.

RATES & EQUITIES (ZN/ZB/DX, NQ/ES/RTY) — A HAWKISH HOLD AND AN AI-EARNINGS WOBBLE

The story in one sentence: a Fed that held while two members wanted to hike met strong data, and then earnings questioned the payback on AI spending. Treasury futures gained modestly (ZBZ26 +0.61%, ZNZ26 +0.52%) as the 10-year yield hovered around the 5% pivot, while the Nasdaq-100 (NQZ26) fell 1.10% in pre-market trading.

[CHART]

Source: U.S. Treasury par yield curve.

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

ZNZ26 (10Y T-Note) last 106-22.5, +0.52% on the week, RSI 63.7, ADX 25.7; price is above its 20-day 105-11, 50-day 105-31.5 but below its 100-day 107-13.5.

ZBZ26 (30Y T-Bond) last 107-30, +0.61% on the week, RSI 63.7, ADX 23.5; price is above its 20-day 105-05, 50-day 106-08 but below its 100-day 108-14.

DXZ26 (Dollar Index) last 101.555, -0.12% on the week, RSI 51.0, ADX 21.9; price is above its 50-day 100.571, 100-day 100.314, 200-day 99.153 but below its 20-day 101.857.

FUNDAMENTAL THESIS

The Fed: a hold at 3.75–4.00% after September’s hike, on a 10–2 vote; the statement dropped the September language that the hike would support a ‘timelier’ return to 2% inflation in favor of ‘more information will help set the stance,’ inflation ‘remains elevated,’ and activity was upgraded from ‘solid’ to ‘strong.’ Hike odds for December 9 were about 84–85% before and after the press conference (about 75% Friday on one measure), roughly 79 basis points of hikes over the next year on one estimate. Cook and Hammack dissented for an immediate hike; in July, three officials dissented the same way. Our read is that the committee is divided on pace, not on direction.

The data supported the hawks: Q3 GDP of 3.4% (the second-quarter pace was 2.2%), September PCE inflation of 3.6% (core 3.1%) and a 3.8% saving rate. Yet long yields did not break higher, partly because equities faltered and partly because oil diplomacy kept energy anxious but contained. The Bank of Japan’s hold with a December signal and the ECB’s hold with a December hike ‘possible’ add to the global tightening bias. Treasury refunding on November 4 is the next supply event.

CATALYST CALENDAR — NEXT 10 DAYS

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WATCH ITEMS

• The AI-payback debate: Apple on Monday and whether Alphabet and Intel’s moves spread to semiconductors.
• The 10-year at 5.00%: Wednesday was the only close above it this week.
• The November 4 refunding statement and the November 6 jobs report ahead of the December 9 FOMC.

IMPORTANT NOTICE — PLEASE READ CAREFULLY.

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors; leverage can work against you as well as for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Per CFTC Rule 4.41, any hypothetical or simulated performance results have inherent limitations, do not represent actual trading, are prepared with the benefit of hindsight, and no representation is made that any account will achieve similar profits or losses. 

Week 44: Oil Reaches Six-Month Highs While Bonds Rally on an AI Rout — and Gold Tests $4,000

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Two stress events ran at once and pushed assets in unusual directions. An AI-equity unwind (Meta fell about 7% Thursday on capital-spending worries; the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 6.7%, its biggest drop since June) drove a flight to Treasuries, while Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and tanker attacks near Hormuz pushed oil to six-month highs. The 10-year yield fell 19 basis points on Thursday to 4.95%, the largest one-day drop since March 2023, even with Brent above $113. Long-bond futures are +1.84% on the week (ZBZ26) and the 10-year note +0.68%.
• Energy is the week's clearest trend. Brent settled at $113.17 on Thursday, its highest settlement since May 4, and traded as high as about $117 on Friday; WTI futures for December (CLZ26) are $102.88, +3.77% on the week. The Houthis struck Saudi sites (a drone near Shaybah and an airport at Dammam, with two deaths at each location reported); Iran has not replied formally to the U.S. proposal, and the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports passed 100 days. Natural gas moved the opposite way: December gas fell 10.2% on mild forecasts despite European gas hitting its highest since December 2022.
• Gold broke toward $4,000. December gold futures (GCZ26) are -3.94% on the week at $4,015.00; spot gold fell to about $3,986 in Asian trading Friday, the lowest since July, and silver set a new 2026 low near $53.70 (-5.43% on futures). Metals fell on the same day bond yields fell, which is unusual: sources point to a firm dollar, a still-priced December Fed hike (roughly 78–86%), selling to raise cash against equity losses, and a technical break of the 4,100–4,200 range.

Data as of Friday, October 23, 2026. Prices are a MIDDAY snapshot around 12:09 CST 

WEEK IN REVIEW: MACRO CONTEXT

Monday and Tuesday were quiet in equities (S&P 500 +0.4%, +0.3%) while oil swung on U.S.–Iran headlines (Brent touched about $112 Tuesday and reversed on diplomacy hopes). Wednesday brought the first signs of trouble in AI infrastructure: Lam Research warned of supply constraints on its call, and Meta reported after the close. On Thursday the unwind hit: Meta fell about 7% on plans for a new non-voting share class to help fund AI spending, Lam Research fell nearly 12%, AMD and Applied Materials about 8%, Nvidia 4.4%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.6% and the S&P 500 1.2%, its worst day since June by the Nasdaq-100’s measure. Defensives held: homebuilders and Home Depot rose strongly.

Rates were the mirror image. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.95% Thursday, the first close below 5% since September 22 and the largest one-day fall since March 2023; the 2-year fell about 18 basis points. Commentators called it a flight to quality and a ‘take-back trade’. The July–October pattern of oil up/yields up/stocks down gave way, for a day, to oil up/yields down/stocks down. On Friday the 10-year was around 4.98%, and equities were softer again (S&P 500 down roughly 0.2–0.5% at midday).

Brent Oil Thursday settle was its highest since May 4, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, an evacuation order at Aramco’s Dhahran site and a State Department notice for non-essential staff, and reports that the U.S. is planning to resume strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterms. Flash PMIs on Friday were strong in the U.S. (composite 57.6, with output prices at their highest since August 2022) and weak in Europe (composite 51.9, a four-month low), and weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000.

Data as of Friday, October 23, 2026. Prices are a MIDDAY snapshot around 12:09 CST

ENERGY (CLZ26 / HOX26 / NGZ26 / RBX26) — THE SAUDI FRONT OPENS AND OIL MAKES A SIX-MONTH HIGH

WTI for December settled at $99.47 on Thursday (+2.4%) and is $102.88 Friday afternoon (+3.77% on the week, measured on the December contract). Natural gas is quoted here on December (NGZ26); the November contract (NGX26) is still the front month until its last trading day on Wednesday, October 28, and traded about $2.73 on Friday (single source).

The escalation is now directly on Saudi soil. On October 21, a drone aimed near the Shaybah oilfield was intercepted and debris killed two people, with the Energy Ministry reporting no operational impact; the same day King Fahd Airport at Dammam was hit (two killed, eight injured). The Houthis claimed strikes on Aramco’s Yanbu facility and Riyadh targets, claims we could not independently confirm. On Thursday, the U.S. State Department ordered non-essential staff out of Saudi Arabia and Aramco reportedly evacuated its Dhahran site. At sea, UKMTO and Lloyd’s List counted record monthly attacks (28 in October to date, single source), and Iran claims further attacks and mines that CENTCOM rejects. Hormuz flows are better than the worst weeks: Kpler estimates strait and Gulf of Oman volumes of about 14 million barrels a day (82% of pre-war) in the week to October 18, up from 11.6 million (68%) the week before (single source), although transits (254 in the seven days to October 14) remain about 70% below pre-war. 

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

CLZ26 (Crude Oil) last $102.88, +3.77% on the week, RSI 74.0 (overbought), ADX 28.0; price is above all 4 moving averages (20-day $93.10, 50-day $88.91, 100-day $81.88, 200-day $76.53), and within 0.4% of its contract high ($103.30).

HOX26 (Heating Oil) last $4.9596, +1.38% on the week, RSI 60.3, ADX 19.4; price is above all 4 moving averages (20-day $4.7516, 50-day $4.5716, 100-day $4.0114, 200-day $3.4126).

RBX26 (Gasoline RBOB) last $3.2160, -0.70% on the week, RSI 52.1, ADX 14.6; price is above its 50-day $3.1036, 100-day $2.8322, 200-day $2.5384 but below its 20-day $3.2333.

NGZ26 (Natural Gas) last $3.044, -10.19% on the week, RSI 28.8 (oversold), ADX 15.4; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day $3.387, 50-day $3.453, 100-day $3.654, 200-day $4.025), and within 0.6% of its contract low($3.026). 

FUNDAMENTAL THESIS

The diplomatic track is stalled. Iran’s foreign minister said on October 21 Tehran is ‘formulating our reply’ to the U.S. seven-day proposal, while its security chief called the U.S. response ‘insufficient’; President Trump said Thursday there is no viable counterpart in Tehran and accused Iran of inventing hits and mines (no evidence offered). The New York Times reported on October 21 that the U.S. is planning to resume strikes on energy, nuclear and missile sites after November 3, and the IRGC warned Thursday that conflict will extend to U.S. bases if escorts continue. The U.S. blockade, now past 100 days, has denied Iran at least $25 billion of crude exports by CENTCOM’s count. Pakistan and Qatar remain the mediators.

Natural gas is the contrarian story. December gas fell 10.2% on the week (RSI near 29, oversold) because mild weather delayed the start of heating demand: the NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects above-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. for both October 28–November 1 and October 30–November 5. The EIA reported a 77 Bcf injection (79–80 Bcf expected), bringing working gas to 3,644 Bcf: 1.0% above the five-year average (the surplus narrowed from 45 to 35 Bcf) and 4.0% below last year. U.S. output is about 111 Bcf a day and LNG feedgas about 18 Bcf a day, with Golden Pass Train 1 still delayed. The upside risk is Europe: the TTF benchmark topped €92 per megawatt-hour, its highest since December 2022 on restricted Qatari LNG, and EU storage is about 75% full against a five-year average near 86% (single source).

CATALYST CALENDAR — NEXT 10 DAYS

WATCH ITEMS

• Saudi infrastructure: whether the Houthi strikes damage output or exports, beyond the Shaybah and Dammam incidents.
• Iran’s reply and the post-midterm strike reporting: the largest binary risk in oil.
• Wednesday’s EIA report: distillate stocks and crude draws; natural gas storage Thursday October 29.

RATES & DOLLAR (ZT/ZF/ZN/ZB/DX) — THE AI UNWIND TURNS BONDS INTO A HAVEN

For the first time this year, long-duration Treasuries rallied hard on an equity selloff even as oil rose, which broke the pattern in which energy shocks pushed yields up. Futures show it: ZBZ26 is +1.84% and ZNZ26 +0.68% on the week, with the dollar index (DXZ26) flat at 101.660.

Source: U.S. Treasury par yield curve. Thursday’s market close for the 10-year was 4.952%, down 19.3bp (the largest one-day fall since March 10, 2023). Friday morning: 10-year about 4.98%, 2-year about 4.67%.

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

ZBZ26 (30Y T-Bond) last 107-08, +1.84% on the week, RSI 63.4, ADX 25.5; price is above its 20-day 104-03, 50-day 106-11 but below its 100-day 108-20.

ZNZ26 (10Y T-Note) last 106-04.5, +0.68% on the week, RSI 59.4, ADX 23.7; price is above its 20-day 104-29 but below its 50-day 106-06.5, 100-day 107-18.

ZFZ26 (5Y T-Note) last 104-15.5, +0.39% on the week, RSI 58.0, ADX 24.1; price is above its 20-day 103-24.2 but below its 50-day 104-20.7, 100-day 105-19.5.

ZTZ26 (2Y T-Note) last 102-02.5, +0.11% on the week, RSI 55.4, ADX 22.7; price is above its 20-day 101-27.1 but below its 50-day 102-06, 100-day 102-17.5, and within 0.5% of its contract low (101-17.2).

DXZ26 (Dollar Index) last 101.660, -0.03% on the week, RSI 55.6, ADX 20.7; price is above its 50-day 100.263, 100-day 100.191, 200-day 99.045 but below its 20-day 101.727.

FUNDAMENTAL THESIS

What drove the 19 basis point fall? The trigger was equities, not data. Meta’s plan for a new non-voting share class to fund AI spending reignited capital-spending worries, Lam Research warned of supply constraints, and the semiconductor index fell 6.7% to its lowest close since July 29. Strategists called it a ‘take-back trade’ and a flight to quality, not recession fear.

The Fed backdrop is firm. After September’s hike to 3.75–4.00%, CME FedWatch puts the odds of a hike on Wednesday, October 28 at about 7% (28% a week ago), and December at about 78–80% (a Reuters poll found all 100 economists expecting a December hike). 

CATALYST CALENDAR — NEXT 10 DAYS

WATCH ITEMS

• Equities: Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday after the close and Amazon Thursday (aggregator dates), which will decide whether the AI unwind continues.
• The 10-year at 5.00%: a rebound above it would mean the haven bid is fading.
• FOMC decision and press conference

PRECIOUS METALS (GC/SI/PA/HG) — GOLD TESTS $4,000 AS SILVER SETS A NEW 2026 LOW

Why did gold fall on a day Treasury yields fell 15–19 basis points? The sources we found point to four forces: oil-driven inflation that keeps a December Fed hike priced at roughly 78–86%, a dollar that held firm, selling to raise cash against equity losses, and a technical break of the 4,100–4,200 range.

We found no source tying Thursday’s drop to ETF outflows, CTA selling or margin changes.

Gold ended a three-week grind lower at a key level. Spot gold held 4,120–4,140 Monday to Wednesday, then fell about 2.9% Thursday to near $4,021 as the Nasdaq slid and Brent jumped, and touched about $3,986 in Asian trading Friday, the lowest since July.

Silver fell 5.9% Thursday to $54.44 and was near $53.70 Friday, below its October 14 low and a new 2026 low; platinum fell to about $1,580 (lowest since late July) and palladium to about $1,050 (lowest since June 2025).

Gold is now about 28% below its January 29 record of about $5,599 spot and well below its 200-day average (about $4,509).

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

GCZ26 (Gold) last $4,015.00, -3.94% on the week, RSI 31.2, ADX 10.5; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day $4,155.70, 50-day $4,342.00, 100-day $4,286.40, 200-day $4,609.40), and within 0.6% of its contract low ($3,990.30).

SIZ26 (Silver) last $54.100, -5.43% on the week, RSI 29.7 (oversold), ADX 9.4; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day $59.062, 50-day $63.625, 100-day $63.330, 200-day $73.211).

PAZ26 (Palladium) last $1,051.00, -5.78% on the week, RSI 26.6 (oversold), ADX 6.9; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day $1,140.06, 50-day $1,260.63, 100-day $1,281.40, 200-day $1,475.24).

HGZ26 (Copper) last $6.5085, -0.88% on the week, RSI 44.5, ADX 12.5; price is above its 200-day $6.3600 but below its 20-day $6.6041, 50-day $6.6436, 100-day $6.5656.

WATCH ITEMS

• $4,000 in gold: a weekly close below it would be a new regime for the 2026 downtrend.
• The dollar and the FOMC on Wednesday, then PCE on Thursday, for real-yield direction.
• PBOC and WGC data in early November (dates unconfirmed) for the central-bank floor.

IMPORTANT NOTICE — PLEASE READ CAREFULLY.

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors; leverage can work against you as well as for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Per CFTC Rule 4.41, any hypothetical or simulated performance results have inherent limitations, do not represent actual trading, are prepared with the benefit of hindsight, and no representation is made that any account will achieve similar profits or losses.

Week 43: A Hot CPI, a Bond Rally Anyway, and an AI-Chip Rout — While Oil Keeps Its War Premium

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Inflation re-accelerated, but bonds rallied anyway. September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over the year (3.6% expected), with core CPI up 0.3% against 0.2% expected; producer prices jumped 1.3% (0.5% expected). The 10-year yield spiked to about 5.30–5.32% intraday on Wednesday, then closed the week through Thursday about 14 basis points lower at 5.10% as an equity rout drove haven buying. Treasury futures are higher on the week (10-year ZNZ26 +0.93%, 30-year ZBZ26 +2.52%). Odds of an October Fed hike spiked to about 50% after CPI and have faded to roughly 15%; a December hike is still priced at roughly 80–90%.
• The Nasdaq-100 broke lower. NQZ26 is -4.46% on the week at 29,491, with most of the damage in semiconductors: the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 3.1% on Wednesday and is down roughly 10% over six sessions (secondary reports), and Micron, Arm and Applied Materials led the declines on AI-financing worries and a Chinese memory-chip announcement. The S&P 500 is about 0.9% lower through Thursday while the Dow gained; rotation went into energy and defensives such as health care and staples, not into hard assets broadly.
• Energy kept its war premium. Crude (CLX26) is +6.72% on the week at $100.96, with WTI up about 3% on Friday to roughly $101 and Brent near $109 on late prints. Roughly ten to thirteen tankers and gas carriers were attacked near Hormuz, Riyadh and Aramco sites came under missile fire, and Kpler counted Gulf crude flows at about 68% of pre-war levels. U.S. crude stocks drew 8.6 million barrels, the most since February. Natural gas fell (-2.86%) after a bullish storage miss was overwhelmed by mild forecasts.

Data as of Friday, October 16, 2026. Prices are a MIDDAY snapshot AROUND 12:39 CT

WEEK IN REVIEW: MACRO CONTEXT

The week turned on Wednesday’s CPI report. Headline CPI rose 0.6% (3.7% year over year, up from 3.4%), driven by energy: gasoline was up 9.1% on the month and 34% on the year. Core CPI was 0.3% month over month and 2.6% over the year, a tenth above expectations at each horizon; shelter rose 0.4% and airfares 1.2%.

Fed speakers kept their options open: Williams said on Tuesday he hasn’t changed his view that one more hike may be appropriate, Bowman saw no urgency, and Warsh said Friday he doesn’t prejudge meetings.

Markets took the inflation shock in two stages. First, on Wednesday, yields and the dollar jumped (10-year up to about 5.30–5.32% intraday, dollar index at an 18-month high) and the Nasdaq fell 1.9%. Then, on Thursday, the 10-year fell about 9 basis points to 5.10% as the equity selloff and an easing in hike odds drew haven buyers, and the dollar index gave back about half a percent. 

Geopolitics kept oil bid. Brent hit its highest level since mid-September on Monday after Houthi strikes on Riyadh over the weekend; it traded around $105–106 most of the week and rallied late Friday. President Trump’s October 9 post that there would be no attack on Iran before the November 3 midterms has not led to talks: Iran has not given a formal reply to the U.S. proposal, the U.S. naval blockade continues, and U.S. officials told reporters strikes could come ‘before or after’ the midterms.

Elsewhere, silver and gold sold off Wednesday and bounced back Thursday and Friday; Escondida’s union and BHP agreed to a 36-month contract; the NOPA crush report was missed; and Bitcoin fell toward $80,000.

Data as of Friday, October 16, 2026. Prices are a MIDDAY snapshot AROUND 12:39 CT

ENERGY (CLX26 / HOX26 / NGX26 / RBX26) — THE WAR PREMIUM HOLDS, GAS DOES NOT

Crude oil is the week’s clearest trend. Brent traded in a $105–106 band Monday to Thursday and rallied late Friday to about $109, while WTI (the November contract, CLX26) jumped about 3% to $100.96 Friday afternoon - CLX26 up +6.72% on the week.

The supply-risk list is long and mostly confirmed. Lloyd’s List counted at least 13 attacks on tankers and gas carriers since September 28 (single source), and a container ship sank off the Gulf of Oman (cause disputed: Iran says a mine; CENTCOM says an Iranian projectile). On October 13, Saudi Arabia reported a missile aimed at Dhahran was intercepted, with debris starting a limited fire at an Aramco Eastern Province site and falling on Riyadh, injuring four; Riyadh’s airport has been targeted about 20 times since October 1. Saudi-led strikes hit Houthi oil sites in Yemen.

Kpler’s seven-day Gulf crude flow was 11.6 million barrels a day through October 13, about 68% of its pre-war baseline, while refined-product flows remain far lower. The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has redirected about 130 ships. There is no ceasefire, and Iran has not formally responded to the U.S. proposal.

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

CLX26 (Crude Oil) last $100.96, +6.72% on the week, RSI 64.5, ADX 25.0; price is above all 3 moving averages (20-day $92.39, 50-day $89.07, 100-day $82.63). CLX26 expires Tuesday, October 20, so the December contract becomes the reference soon; expect a roll-related change in quoted levels.

HOX26 (Heating Oil) last $4.8860, +0.45% on the week, RSI 54.6, ADX 21.4; price is above all 4 moving averages (20-day $4.6739, 50-day $4.4724, 100-day $3.9328, 200-day $3.3408).

RBX26 (Gasoline RBOB) last $3.2091, -4.36% on the week, RSI 47.1, ADX 16.9; price is above its 50-day $3.0560, 100-day $2.8023, 200-day $2.5011 but below its 20-day $3.2521.

NGX26 (Natural Gas) last $3.147, -2.86% on the week, RSI 50.1, ADX 21.2; price is above its 20-day $3.139, 50-day $3.068 but below its 100-day $3.167, 200-day $3.453. 

CATALYST CALENDAR — NEXT 10 DAYS

WATCH ITEMS

• Hormuz flows and incidents: Kpler’s weekly count against the 68% baseline, and any new attack on tankers or Saudi sites.
• Diplomacy: Iran’s formal reply, and reporting on whether strikes are planned before or after November 3.
• Distillate stocks: Wednesday’s EIA report after a 12%-below-average starting point.

RATES & DOLLAR (ZT/ZF/ZN/ZB/DX) — A HOT CPI, A HAVEN BID, AND A SUPPLY QUESTION

The inflation data argued for higher yields, but a tech selloff and fading odds of an October hike pulled long yields back, leaving the 10-year range-bound between about 5.0% and 5.3%.

The inflation print was real, and was largely energy: shelter and services added, but core goods and food were quiet.

Futures show the haven bid: the 30-year bond (ZBZ26) gained +2.52% and the 10-year note (ZNZ26) +0.93%, while the dollar index (DXZ26) is -0.46%.

Source: BLS, Census, regional Fed surveys. Consensus figures vary by source.

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

ZNZ26 (10Y T-Note) last 105-12, +0.93% on the week, RSI 53.2, ADX 19.9; price is above its 20-day 104-26.5 but below its 50-day 106-15 and 100-day 107-24.5.

ZBZ26 (30Y T-Bond) last 105-12, +2.52% on the week, RSI 56.3, ADX 22.1; price is above its 20-day 104-02 but below its 50-day 106-20 and 100-day 108-29.

ZFZ26 (5Y T-Note) last 104-00.25, +0.54% on the week, RSI 52.0, ADX 20.4; price is above its 20-day 103-21.7 but below its 50-day 104-27.5, 100-day 105-24, and within 0.9% of its contract low (103-01).

ZTZ26 (2Y T-Note) last 101-29.5, +0.15% on the week, RSI 51.3, ADX 17.7; price is above its 20-day 101-25.3 but below its 50-day 102-08.8, 100-day 102-19.5, and within 0.4% of its contract low (101-17.2).

DXZ26 (Dollar Index) last 101.730, -0.46% on the week, RSI 55.7, ADX 27.1; price is above all 4 moving averages (20-day 101.473, 50-day 100.049, 100-day 100.060, 200-day 98.959), and within 1.0% of its contract high (102.735).

FUNDAMENTAL THESIS

Why did bonds rally on a hot print? The quick answer is that the CPI beat was small where it matters (core 0.3% against 0.2%) and large where it can reverse (gasoline up 9% in a month), so markets treated it as an energy shock rather than a broadening of inflation.

Hike odds for October fell from a post-CPI peak near 50% to about 15%, and the 10-year yield returned to the middle of its range.

The Fed backdrop is hawkish but patient: Williams (October 13) still sees one more hike as appropriate with none needed in 2027; Bowman (October 14) said there was no urgency; Warsh (October 16) declined to signal. Goldman expects a hold in October and a final hike in December.

The supply question is where the structural risk sits. The Congressional Budget Office put the fiscal 2026 deficit at $2.0 trillion (6.2% of GDP). Citi has flagged a possible cut in 20-year and 30-year auction sizes, with the 20-year potentially being discontinued; that is a forecast, and any change would come at the November 4 refunding. 

CATALYST CALENDAR — NEXT 10 DAYS

WATCH ITEMS

• The October 21 20-year reopening and any early read on refunding plans.
• Oil: a move above Friday’s levels in Brent feeds straight into breakevens and the front end.
• Fed quiet period: with few speeches expected, equities and hike odds will trade headline-to-headline into the October 28 decision.

EQUITY INDICES (NQ/ES/RTY/YM) — AN AI-CHIP ROUT BREAKS THE NASDAQ

Nasdaq-100 futures (NQZ26) are -4.46% on the week in Friday-midday data. 

PRICE ACTION & TECHNICAL STRUCTURE

NQZ26 (Nasdaq 100) last 29,491, -4.46% on the week, RSI 37.7, ADX 15.5; price is above its 200-day 28,300 but below its 20-day 30,798, 50-day 30,189, 100-day 30,056.

ESZ26 (S&P 500) last 7,711, -1.30% on the week, RSI 47.1, ADX 16.8; price is above its 100-day 7,694, 200-day 7,398 but below its 20-day 7,798, 50-day 7,778.

QRZ26 (Russell 2000) last 2,738, -2.26% on the week, RSI 33.2, ADX 11.6; price is below all 4 moving averages (20-day 2,830, 50-day 2,931, 100-day 2,963, 200-day 2,841).

YMZ26 (Dow) last 52,174, +1.13% on the week, RSI 54.9, ADX 25.7; price is above its 20-day 51,856, 200-day 51,310 but below its 50-day 52,871, 100-day 52,789. 

FUNDAMENTAL THESIS

The damage is concentrated in semiconductors and AI infrastructure. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.1% on Wednesday and is roughly 10% lower over six sessions, with more than $1 trillion in market value lost.
Arm fell about 20%, Applied Materials about 15% and Intel about 11% over the stretch, and Micron fell 5.2% on October 13 after a Chinese memory-chip maker’s announcement hit Korean chip stocks (KOSPI −5.5%, SK Hynix −10%).

Two themes recur.
Financing: Broadcom’s CEO said on October 12 that capital is the main constraint on AI build-outs and that investors are acting like ‘gamblers’ (while staying bullish on demand to 2030), and AI-infrastructure credit has weakened (CoreWeave bonds near a 16% yield).

Rates: Wednesday’s selloff coincided with the CPI-driven jump in yields. On the positive side, TSMC beat and raised guidance, and ASML raised its outlook, so the chip-demand story remains intact.

Earnings season is strong in aggregate: FactSet’s October 9 blended estimate for third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth was 29.6%, up from 26.7% at the end of June. Next week, earnings from Tesla, Netflix, Texas Instruments, and IBM. 

CATALYST CALENDAR — NEXT 10 DAYS

WATCH ITEMS

• Semiconductors: whether the SOX stabilizes after its seven-session slide; TSMC and ASML read-through versus financing worries.
• Earnings: Tesla and Netflix Tuesday, Texas Instruments and IBM Wednesday.
• Rates: a 10-year yield back above 5.30% would pressure growth stocks again.

IMPORTANT NOTICE — PLEASE READ CAREFULLY.

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors; leverage can work against you as well as for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Per CFTC Rule 4.41, any hypothetical or simulated performance results have inherent limitations, do not represent actual trading, are prepared with the benefit of hindsight, and no representation is made that any account will achieve similar profits or losses.