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The Economic Calendar:
MONDAY: Fed Balance Sheet (3:30p CT)
TUESDAY: NFIB Business Optimism Index (5:00a CT), Redbook (7:55a CT), Used Car Prices (8:00a CT), Consumer Inflation Expectations (10:00a CT), 3-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT), Consumer Credit Change (2:00p CT)
WEDNESDAY: MBA Mortgage Applications (6:00a CT), Wholesale Inventories (9:00a CT), EIA Petroleum Status Report (9:30a CT), 10-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT), FOMC Minutes (1:00p CT)
THURSDAY: Jobless Claims (7:30a CT), Fed Musalem Speech (9:00a CT), EIA Natural Gas Report (9:30a CT), 30-Year Bond Auction (12:00p CT), Fed Waller Speech (12:15p CT), Fed Daly Speech (1:30p CT), Fed Balance Sheet (3:30p CT)
FRIDAY: WASDE Report (11:00a CT), Baker Hughes Rig Count (12:00p CT), Monthly Budget Statement (1:00p CT)
Key Events:
U.S. S&P 500 index futures opened Friday night’s session on the back foot (-0.60%), retreating after the cash market closed at a fresh all-time high. The catalyst: renewed trade and tariff headwinds as American trade partners pushed for concessions ahead of the July 9th deadline. President Trump ratcheted up tensions after Thursday’s close, reportedly warning partners that he could unilaterally impose levies as high as 70% as early as today.
This aggressive stance instantly revived the “trade and tariff headwinds” narrative, overshadowing any positive sentiment. Notably, even the signing of “The Big Beautiful Bill” seemed to elicit a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction from the market, which largely shrugged it off.
After a decent run in June and some fresh all-time highs for the S&P, this Q2 earnings cycle is the next major catalyst that will either justify current valuations or trigger some serious unwinds.
“Earnings Guidance is King” (as always). Forget the backward-looking Q2 numbers if the forward commentary isn’t solid. With trade tensions flaring up again and the Fed still playing a patient game, what management says about the second half of the year’s outlook, demand, costs, and especially the impact of tariffs will dictate price action more than the beat or miss itself. Pay close attention to revenue guidance – can they actually grow the top line, or is it all about cost-cutting?
The adrenaline is pumping, and I’ve got that classic “euphoric feeling” coursing through my veins – FOMO is absolutely raging right now. It’s tough to fight the urge to just pile in.
However, a dose of reality is warranted. Global markets are still grappling with an unresolved trade war led by the Trump administration, which remains a significant source of uncertainty. This “Russian-Ukraine and Iran-Israel wars” is set to continue generating headwinds for global growth and fueling day-to-day market volatility. Expect high-flying global stocks to face corrections as macroeconomic data softens, creating a more favorable environment for haven assets.
The bottom line is that valuations are stretched. While the sentiment might feel fantastic, the underlying risks, particularly from this persistent trade friction, suggest that caution is paramount. It’s a tricky balance between riding the wave and respecting the headwinds.
Momentum factor portfolios just saw their sharpest single-day decline since “Deep Seek January,” a significant drawdown given their outsized performance year-to-date.
While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up a modest 5% after recovering from double-digit losses earlier, various momentum baskets have surged into double-digit gains. Notably, the Goldman Momentum Pair basket and Goldman High Beta Momo Pair closed the first half of the year up a robust 20%.
The critical question for traders now is how to effectively protect against further momentum unwinds, especially with increasing “event” risk on the horizon.
Goldman Sachs’s derivatives desk is suggesting specific hedge structures for this scenario:
These hedges aim to provide protection should the recent momentum unwinds continue or accelerate, offering tactical exposure against a potential rotation out of highly performing momentum names.
Source: Zerohedge
“The ultimate luxury is doing something every day that you love doing with people that you love doing it with.” Warren Buffett
The market’s expectation for the July 30th FOMC interest rate decision remains firmly anchored, with the probability of no change still hovering around 95%. This resolve follows last Thursday’s stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report, which significantly pared back rate cut expectations.
Specifically, September’s cumulative cuts are now priced at just 19 basis points (bps), down sharply from 28 bps ahead of the NFP print. Looking further out, only 51bp of total cuts are now priced through the December FOMC meeting.
Despite this recalibration in near-term expectations, the broader narrative still suggests that the Federal Reserve will move closer to easing policy in the second half of the year. The persistent “shadow chair” speculation regarding a potential successor to Jerome Powell continues to reinforce market bets on looser monetary policy, irrespective of who ultimately takes the helm. For now, the NFP data has given the Fed more breathing room to maintain its patient stance.
Despite this, President Trump has made an effort to clarify to the public what expectations are, and if he has his way, there will be lower interest rates.
Source: CMEGroup
Crude oil futures are poised to face downward pressure as the market opens Sunday evening. The key catalyst is the OPEC+ decision over the weekend to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, a figure significantly higher than the market’s expectation of 411,000 bpd. This move marks a shift for the influential group, which accounts for roughly half of global oil output, reversing its 2022 curtailment strategy. The pivot aims to regain market share and responds directly to U.S. President Trump’s calls for increased pumping to temper gasoline prices.
These larger-than-anticipated supply increases are expected to ensure the global oil market remains comfortably supplied through the remainder of the year. Furthermore, the geopolitical risk premium that recently bolstered prices has rapidly eroded following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The prospect of a well-balanced oil market, combined with substantial OPEC spare production capacity, is providing effective comfort to market participants. Expect a bearish lean into the early week trade.
Gold is currently consolidating in the middle of its recent range, characterized by notably light volume and a virtually unchanged open interest (OI) that has remained stable for over 60 days. This stagnant OI largely stems from the significant inventories occupying at least half of the short side of the book. Crucially, the traditional speculative community in America isn’t actively engaged on the long side, rendering that end of the OI equally inert.
Indeed, the landscape of “speculators” has fundamentally shifted; meaningful numbers of smaller players are effectively gone. The real constituency in this market now comprises behemoths such as BlackRock, major banks, Citadel, and similar institutional players, which primarily operate through sophisticated algorithms.
Despite this current lack of short-term speculative engagement, gold continues to garner favor as a strategic asset. Underlying demand remains robust, particularly from global central banks aggressively buying to diversify their reserves. This trend, reinforced by recent industry surveys, suggests a largely one-way demand channel, as central bank purchases rarely reverse. Furthermore, global holdings in bullion-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have swelled to their largest levels since mid-2023, signaling strong non-official demand that is expected to continue driving further inflows. Although the immediate chart appears quiet, these structural tailwinds suggest a robust long-term fundamental story.
Source:TradingView
The latest USDA reports have delivered a mixed bag for the ags complex, with key acreage and quarterly stock figures influencing supply outlooks. Traders need to note the nuances, as not all numbers align with expectations.
Acreage Outlook:
Quarterly Stocks – Where the Surprises Hit:
Trading Implications: The acreage figures paint a somewhat stable picture for corn, while soybeans and wheat face potential headwinds from reduced plantings but significantly higher-than-expected inventories. The larger-than-forecast stocks for soybeans and wheat are the immediate takeaways, suggesting potential pressure on prices for these two commodities as we head deeper into the summer. Corn, while seeing higher acreage, had its stock figure largely match expectations, suggesting less immediate downside shock from inventories.
Keep an eye on demand drivers and weather developments that could shift this balance.
Source:TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) futures experienced a brief breakout from their recent trading channel, surging to $110,500 by Thursday’s close, ahead of the July 4th holiday. However, that upward momentum quickly faded, with prices retracing back into the channel at $108,060 as of the time of writing.
This price action coincides with early signs of summer seasonality returning to the crypto markets. Total Bitcoin futures volume for June recorded a notable 20% month-over-month (MoM) decline, with centralized exchanges accounting for just $1.55 trillion in volume. For context, this is 20% below the $1.93 trillion average monthly volume seen over the first five months of 2025.
This trend isn’t new. Last year, June 2024’s total Bitcoin futures volume dropped 15.7% MoM, leading to a consistently lower average monthly volume of $1.53 trillion from June through September 2024, compared to the $1.71 trillion average of the preceding five months. A similar pattern emerged in 2023, albeit starting in July, where volumes sharply declined by ~30% MoM in July, followed by further drops through September.
While it’s still early to call with absolute certainty, the June 2025 data strongly suggests we could be on track for another typically muted summer stretch in crypto, indicating that traders might need to adjust their strategies for reduced liquidity and potentially less directional conviction.
Source:TradingView
