Home › Market News › Equity Flows, Feeder Cattle Futures, and A Dive Into Crypto Futures
The Economic Calendar:
MONDAY: Building Permits (7:00a CT), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (7:30a CT), New Home Sales (9:00a CT), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (9:30a CT)
TUESDAY: Durable Goods (7:30a CT), Fed Barkin Speech (7:30a CT), Redbook (7:55a CT), House Price Index (8:00a CT) Consumer Confidence (9:00a CT), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (9:00a CT), Dallas Fed Services Incex (9:30a CT), 2-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT), Money Supply (12:00p CT), API Crude Oil Stock Change (3:30p CT)
WEDNESDAY: MBA Mortgage Applications (6:00a CT), EIA Petroleum Status Report (9:30a CT), Fed Barkin Speech (11:45a CT), 5-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT)
THURSDAY: Jobless Claims (7:30a CT), GDP (7:30a CT), Pending Home Sales (9:00a CT), EIA Natural Gas Report (9:30a CT), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (10:00a CT), 7-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT), Fed Balance Sheet (3:30p CT), Fed Waller Speech (5:00p CT)
FRIDAY: Core PCE (7:30a CT), Retail/Wholesale Inventories (7:30a CT), Chicago PMI (8:45a CT), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (9:00a CT), Baker Hughes Rig Count (12:00p CT)
Key Events:
The S&P 500 was essentially flat on the week, showing mixed sentiment as large-cap strength offset weakness in growth sectors, with a gain of 0.06%. The Russell 2000 was higher by +2.89%.
As the stock market’s rally continues to be dominated by a handful of technology giants, investors are increasingly questioning whether the fervor for artificial intelligence is a new version of the dot-com crash.
The comparisons intensified this week after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman suggested investors are “overexcited” about the technology and Meta, a key competitor, reportedly froze hiring in its AI division.
The current market dynamic echoes a historical precedent: the “Nifty 50” run of the 1990s that preceded the tech bubble. Both periods span roughly six years, and the outperformance of the largest 50 stocks against the S&P 500 has been remarkably similar, with a 73-percentage-point gain since 2015 compared to a 71-percentage-point gain in the 1990s.
However, a closer look reveals key differences that raise new concerns. Some analysts see today’s Nifty 50 as being of lower fundamental quality than its 1990s counterpart.
Despite their near-record valuations, these stocks, in aggregate, carry only average long-term growth expectations. This suggests that the recent market gains are not a sector-specific phenomenon but rather a broad-based “love for large,” where investors are favoring market capitalization leaders across the board. The collective momentum behind these stocks may be nearing a tipping point.
The market’s rotation out of tech and momentum into value and defensive names could continue.
Powell hinted at a September rate cut last week, but remained cautiously dovish—don’t expect more than affirmation of current expectations.
Market Rotation Signals:
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Key takeaways from Fed governors and a speech by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole.
The core message is a shift towards a more dovish stance, with Powell stating that new risks may warrant adjusting policy.
He highlighted that the recent slowdown in payrolls is “much larger than assessed just a month ago,” increasing concerns about a weaker labor market and the risk of sharply higher layoffs.
Powell also suggested that a weakening labor market lessens the risk of tariffs causing a “more lasting inflation dynamic,” which in turn lessens the risk to the Fed’s inflation target.
He sees policy as still “above neutral” and suggested the Fed might want to take the rate lower to a more neutral setting to balance evolving risks.
Fed Speak:
Source: CME Group
Despite a recent uptick in diplomatic activity, the path toward a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unclear.
An optimistic view suggests a potential peace deal is drawing closer, although negotiators widely believe the process will take months, not weeks.
However, a more pessimistic assessment holds that Russia’s position on key issues, such as security guarantees, has not materially changed.
Analysts currently view a full ceasefire as unlikely to be achieved this year.
Feeder cattle prices have risen to $360.35 US/Lbs, up +8.70% over the past month and +48.39%YTD.
Key Drivers:
Source: TradingView
Ethereum has recently outpaced Bitcoin in performance, and analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. have identified four key drivers behind the trend, each signaling a new phase of institutional adoption for the second-largest cryptocurrency.
First, markets anticipate that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will soon approve staking for spot Ethereum ETFs. This development would create a new yield opportunity for institutional investors, bypassing the need to hold the 32 ETH required to run a validator, a sum currently valued at approximately $135,000.
Second, corporate treasuries are increasingly beginning to add Ethereum to their balance sheets. According to JPMorgan’s analysis, about 10 public companies now hold a collective 2.3% of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply. Some of these firms are also exploring more advanced strategies, such as running validators or pursuing decentralized finance (DeFi) yield opportunities.
Third, institutional concerns over the regulatory status of liquid staking tokens have eased following recent SEC staff guidance. While not yet a formal policy, this guidance hints that these tokens may not be classified as securities, encouraging greater engagement with ETH-related products.
Finally, the SEC’s recent approval of in-kind redemptions for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has streamlined operations for institutional investors. This allows them to redeem shares directly with the underlying cryptocurrency rather than through cash conversions, reducing costs and improving liquidity.
JPMorgan’s analysis concludes that Ethereum has more room to grow. Because its ETF and corporate treasury adoption still lags behind Bitcoin, there is significant room for further institutional inflows, should these trends continue.
Source: TradingView
The recent price volatility in digital assets has highlighted a significant reliance on leveraged perp and futures positions, even as on-chain profit-taking remained relatively subdued.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts remains elevated at $67 billion, underscoring the high degree of leverage in the market.
During the recent sell-off, over $2.3 billion in open interest was unwound, a nominal decline that ranks among the largest in the past year. This rapid contraction points to the speculative nature of the market, where a moderate price movement can trigger a significant reduction in leveraged positions.
While liquidation volumes did rise, with longs seeing a $99 million hit, these levels were notably lower than during other volatile periods this year. This suggests that a significant portion of the recent contract closures were voluntary and risk-managed, rather than a system-wide deleveraging event.
Meanwhile, a similar pattern emerged in altcoin markets. The combined open interest across major altcoin futures, including Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, surged to a new all-time high of $60.2 billion over the weekend, approaching parity with Bitcoin’s open interest. This was immediately followed by a sharp $2.6 billion decline as prices corrected, marking the tenth-largest single-day drop on record.
These rapid fluctuations underscore that altcoins are currently attracting significant investor attention, contributing to heightened fragility and reflexivity across the broader digital asset space.
These performance charts track the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes of various asset classes, including some of the most popular and liquid markets available to traders.
