Home › Market News › Commodity Futures, Gold Prices, and A Big Economic Calendar
The Economic Calendar:
MONDAY: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (7:30a CT), S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (8:45a CT)
TUESDAY: Building Permits (7:00a CT), Redbook (7:55a CT), House Price Index (8:00a CT), Consumer Confidence (9:00a CT), New Home Sales (9:00a CT), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (9:00a CT), 2-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT), Money Supply (3:30p CT)
WEDNESDAY: MBA Mortgage Applications (6:00a CT), Durable Goods (7:30a CT), EIA Petroleum Status Report (9:30a CT), 5-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT)
THURSDAY: Jobless Claims (7:30a CT), U.S. GDP (7:30a CT), Consumer Spending (7:30a CT), Retail/Wholesale Inventories (7:30a CT), Pending Home Sales (9:00a CT), EIA Natural Gas Report (9:30a CT), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (10:00a CT), 7-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT), Fed Balance Sheet (3:30p CT), Fed Barkin Speech (3:30p CT)
FRIDAY: Core PCE (7:30a CT), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (9:00a CT), Baker Hughes Rig Count (12:00p CT)
Key Events:
Traders will focus on GDP and PCE reports for signs of economic growth and inflation this week.
U.S. equities saw positive performance for the week, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.21% and the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.25%, snapping a four-week losing streak. This week also saw significant inflows into equities, with the largest inflow of 2025 recorded at $43.4 billion. U.S. stocks specifically saw their most significant weekly inflow of the year, totaling $34.1 billion.
However, this positive flow data is tempered by reports of substantial foreign selling of U.S. stocks. The past two weeks have seen the largest foreign selling since March 2023. This divergence between domestic buying and foreign selling adds a layer of complexity to the market outlook.
Market attention has also been focused on the tech sector, with some analysts noting an unwinding of recent tech and AI trades. The recent NVIDIA GTC Conference and a panel of quantum computing executives were cited as examples of a “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon, suggesting that market participants may be taking profits after a run-up in anticipation of these events.
Following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision on March 19, 2025, to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, market participants have recalibrated their expectations for future rate cuts, as reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool.
The Fed’s updated “dot plot” projections, released alongside the decision, signaled a more hawkish stance, suggesting a reduction in the anticipated number of rate cuts for 2025 from three to two 25-basis-point reductions. This adjustment reflects the central bank’s focus on persistent inflation concerns amidst solid economic growth.
Source: CME FedWatch
Fed Funds futures prices on March 21 likely mirrored this shift in sentiment, with markets pricing in a reduced probability of aggressive rate cuts by year-end 2025. Traders are now anticipating a potential easing of approximately 50-60 basis points, down from earlier expectations of 75-100 basis points.
Based on futures pricing trends observed in the days leading up to and following the FOMC meeting, the May 2025 meeting will likely indicate odds exceeding 80% for no change to the current 4.25%-4.50% range. The FedWatch Tool would have shown a distribution favoring stability or modest easing, reflecting the market’s adjustment to the Fed’s cautious outlook.
Source: CME FedWatch
Gold futures experienced a week of significant volatility, with June Comex gold settling down $20. Intraday trading on Friday saw a sharp $60 decline on moderate volume, followed by a post-session rally, a pattern consistent with recent market behavior.
Despite the fluctuating futures prices, gold ETFs witnessed record inflows, totaling $10.6 billion over the past four weeks, the largest four-week inflow on record. This surge in ETF demand occurred alongside a 5,000-contract decline in open interest as of Thursday’s close, suggesting a complex interplay of investor sentiment.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported a substantial increase in speculative net non-commercial positions, rising by 26,537 contracts. This rebound follows a 68,000-contract drop observed in February and March, during which gold prices rallied by $268 per troy ounce. Analysts note that Comex gold is not considered heavily long.
This confluence of factors – record ETF inflows, volatile futures trading, and shifting speculative positions – underscores a market characterized by robust demand and ongoing repositioning amid fluctuating market dynamics.
Commodity markets show mixed performance amid trade concerns.
For the week ending March 21, copper futures experienced upward pressure, driven by robust industrial demand and a weakening U.S. dollar.
Soybean futures saw volatility, with May contracts closing down 6 3/4 cents at $10.06 1/4. Prices were impacted by tight Chinese supplies and hedging against potential trade war fallout.
Corn futures also faced downward pressure, with May contracts falling 6 cents to $4.63 on March 20. This was influenced by Brazil’s record harvest and the resolution of an Argentine worker strike. However, prices have shown some recovery from February lows.
Crude oil futures saw modest gains, maintaining prices above $68 per barrel on March 21. This was bolstered by a firmer U.S. dollar and commodity fund buying despite weekend selloffs attributed to trade war anxieties.
Bitcoin futures witnessed a week of significant volatility and deleveraging, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures plummeted, with reports indicating a 14% decline and a $10 billion wipeout. CME open interest also saw a dramatic 45% reduction from December to March, suggesting a classic leverage purge.
Price action was marked by a sharp reversal after liquidity was swept below Monday’s lows, briefly pushing towards earlier highs before retracing into a fair value gap.
However, aggressive buyers emerged over the weekend (as of this writing), pushing prices higher through thin-order books.
year’s level and 230 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,928 Bcf.
Despite those declines, the storage level of 1,698 Bcf is still within the five-year historical range. So, while supply is definitely tighter than usual, it’s not completely out of whack.
These performance charts track the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes of various asset classes, including some of the most popular and liquid markets available to traders.
